The 2022 Mw6.2 Pasaman, Indonesia, earthquake sequence and its implication of seismic hazard in central-west Sumatra

Abstract The 2022 M w 6.2 Pasaman earthquake took place in central-west Sumatra association with activity the Sumatran Fault system. This study clarifies spatial and temporal distribution of sequence forecasts sequence’s impact on seismicity vicinity We first examined before mainshock observed low b -value anomalies, shedding light earthquake’s precursor by monitoring -values prior to event. Based aftershocks 18 days, we modeled according modified Omori’s law, which suggested this could last 49–473 days. By further considering Båth’s law Gutenberg–Richter estimated maximum magnitudes aftershock sequence. To understand pattern aftershocks, calculated coseismic Coulomb stress change imparted mainshock. Considering uncertainties calculations from rupture geometry, parameters, friction coefficients, strike angles receiver plane, patterns changes are similar that increases extended northwest southeast, consistent distribution. evaluated probability for each segment Fault. perturbation earthquake, expected a rate increase ca. 40% at Sumpur Sianok segments short term. quantify long-term probability, recurrence interval time elapsed since previous were incorporated based time-dependent Brownian passage-time model. Sumani coming 50 years was determined be 72%. results have significant implications subsequent probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, not only but also certain metropolitan areas Malaysia Singapore.